What Do We Expect?
This is our economy, after all.
We’re all experiencing prices much higher than those we’d grown accustomed to in the pre-pandemic period.And most people simply can’t relate to central-bank-speak explanations for literal gut-level changes in their day-to-day lives. “Transitory,” lol…
We’re about to be told that prices are still rising, not just compared to a year ago but versus just last month, although perhaps at a slowing pace.
It’s a frustration that goes far beyond the simple goofiness of those “when good news is bad news” price-action days. People hate inflation, to what appears to be an irrational degree.
Still, we are starting to see some normalization after a world-historical destabilizing event, whether or not we can appreciate it together.
And it does make for an intriguing contrast that people are speaking positively about their personal situations while perceiving the world beyond them in starkly negative terms.
Hard to say what’s driving that conflict; safe to say it’s beyond our brief. So let’s check some data.
As Sonu Varghese of Carson Group explained on X on Tuesday, consumers certainly wouldn't be saying they expect their spending to grow 5 percent over the next year if they didn't feel good about their finances.
Theoretically, we should have some release from that sluggishness today.
Of course, after investors, traders, and speculators see Consumer Price Index data for March at 8:30 a.m. ET, attention will turn to the release of the minutes for the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at 2:00 p.m.
And, after that, we’ll look forward to March Producer Price Index data on Thursday and earnings reporting season kicking into serious gear with JPMorgan Chase $JPM, Citigroup $C, and Wells Fargo $WFC sharing numbers on Friday.
In reality, we are always and forever playing an expectations game.
