Monday, July 22, 2024

Biden Makes a Statement

  • Appreciate history.
  • IT’s a mess.
  • Trade wars are ugly.
Senior Editor, StockPick Daily
MARKETS

Joe Biden Exits the Stage

We’ll see how markets react.

Image has been just about everything when it comes to presidential politics for nearly 64 years, since John F. Kennedy beat Richard M. Nixon in one of the most closely contested and highly mythologized elections in American history.
The seminal event was the September 26, 1960, debate, the first in a series of four that year. Also the first presidential debate to be televised, it aired on the radio too. 
Those who watched thought Kennedy was the clear winner. Those who listened thought Nixon was the clear winner.
By 1960, an estimated 46 million households in the US had at least one TV, up from 5 million in 1950 and about 90 percent of the total.
Nixon rested up, got a close shave, and slapped on some makeup for his subsequent meetings with Kennedy, but it was too little too late.
By 1970, when Nixon finally occupied the White House, 95.5 percent of households had a TV and he had learned to connect with the “silent majority” in his inimitable way.
Joe Biden still looks great in a suit, as good as any octogenarian on the planet, but he just didn’t have the kind of time No. 37 had to adapt to a reality that changes fast these days.
And other images from his June 28 debate with Donald Trump had gone from alarming to indelible.

President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 US presidential election campaign on Sunday, July 21, 2024.
There are other things happening this week, including the acceleration and expansion of earnings-reporting season, but that’s the story.
Today is appropriately quiet on the economic data front. On Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET we’ll get existing home sales figures for June from the National Association of Realtors.
On Wednesday – same time but from the US Census Bureau – we’ll get new home sales figures for June.
Thursday includes second-quarter GDP as well as jobless claims plus durable goods, trade balance, and retail and wholesale inventory data.
And on Friday it’s the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index data for July.
That report could seal the deal on a rate cut. But it might not: There are a lot of signs the economy is re-heating.
Regardless, it reflects well on the current steward.
And, in time, Joe Biden’s announcement on Sunday that he will withdraw from the 2024 US presidential election will reflect even better on the last of the 20th century statesmen.
deep dive |
July 22, 2024
DEEP DIVE

Here’s Some More History

That was some outage.

A forecast for severe thunderstorms in the area determined us to skip ahead to a hotel near Rapid City, South Dakota, and the Black Hills rather than camp out at Niobrara State Park on Friday.
Calling on the fly to secure a dog-friendly room was how we found out about the largest IT outage in history.
In addition to banks, airports, TV stations, health care service providers, and countless other organizations around the world, multiple hospitality chains were disrupted by a snafu with CrowdStrike’s $CRWD latest tech update.

CrowdStrike is the world’s biggest cybersecurity company. Its software is integral to operations for businesses and governments across the globe.
Those running Microsoft’s $MSFT Windows operating system – and that’s a lot of them – had a rough start to the weekend.

CrowdStrike $CRWD was down 11.10 percent on Friday, July 19, 2024, after a failed software update caused the largest IT outage in history.
We’re road-tripping, so we were able to keep on moving, secure a room, and eventually make it to our Saturday spot just below the Little Bighorn Battlefield at the ford at Medicine Tail Coulee.
I feel for the many, many travelers who had their flights grounded.
According to an update posted to its website on Sunday, CrowdStrike is “actively assisting customers affected by a defect in a recent content update for Windows hosts.”
Noting that the issue has been identified and isolated, and a fix has been deployed,  
CrowdStrike emphasized that the disruption was not a cyberattack.
CRWD was down 11.10 percent on Friday.
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

Contested Beauty

Trump’s tariffs could leave some marks.

Trump’s tariffs could leave some marks.It’s a little too glib to say US presidential campaigns are beauty contests. There is no question matters of political taste are particularly subjective.
But there is substance to these things – consequences, in many cases.
Let’s use e.l.f. Beauty $ELF as a case in point. 
ELF sagged as much as 20.33 percent from a July 12 near-term high of $210.90 as Donald Trump’s restoration prospects improved and the potential for new tariffs increased.
The stock was up 3.85 percent on Friday after Baird analyst Mark Altschwager upgraded his rating on the stock to “buy” from “neutral” and said the recent dip represents an opportunity.  
According to Altschwager, risks represented by a Trump victory in November are manageable.

Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could hurt e.l.f. Beauty $ELF, which manufactures its products in China.
He now sees the stock trading at $230 12 months from now, up from a prior target of $210 and upside of 29.56 percent from Friday’s closing price.
ELF is up more than 40 percent over the trailing 12 months.
“With healthy brand momentum, ongoing distribution expansion, and significant international whitespace,” Altschwager wrote in a note to clients, “ELF appears poised to sustain market share gains and premium earnings growth even in a choppier consumer backdrop."
Wall Street is generally bullish on the stock, with 12 analysts rating it a “buy” and three rating it a hold.
Piper Sandler reiterated its “overweight” rating and its $258 12-month price target last week, noting too that the company is well-equipped to handle whatever comes its way after November.
The consensus forecast sees ELF up more than 30 percent from here.

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