Good News Is Good News
Stocks surge on solid jobs data.
There’s always something fascinating happening somewhere in the vast global financial system, which is why writing about it is such a privilege.People and money make a great foundation for story-telling.
Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the US employment market in March fueled a big rally, with good news met with a positive reaction from investors, traders, and speculators despite the fact that a rate cut probably won’t happen until July or even September.
The economy added 303,000 jobs last month, surpassing a consensus forecast for a 214,000 increase, and the BLS revised upward its counts for January and February.
Payroll growth averaged 276,000 per month in the first quarter compared to 212,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 166,000 in 2019.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent, having risen from 3.4 percent in April 2023, and both the labor force participation rate and hours worked were up.
It’s good when good news is good news. It makes sense.
This is exactly what the Federal Reserve wants to see.
We have a relatively light week of Fed speakers ahead after a relatively heavy one last week.
But we will get Consumer Price Index data for March on Wednesday morning and the minutes from that month’s Federal Open Market Committee in the afternoon.
Bond yields, which have been creeping up all year despite talk of rate cuts, continue to push higher, with the benchmark US 10-year higher than it’s been since late November and on a path toward 4.5 percent.
It’s hard to describe persistent job growth as anything but a good thing; economies are about people, people, and when people are working good things are happening, generally, and when people are not working bad things are happening, again very generally.
Wage growth is good too, and it actually looks like we’re seeing the best of its kind: not too fast, not too slow.
