The Employment Situation Is Probably Cooling
How long will the Federal Reserve hold out?
What will be the bigger story today, the May jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET or Roaring Kitty’s YouTube livestream at 12:00 p.m.?The FactSet-compiled consensus expectation is that the US economy added 180,000 jobs last month, up from 175,000 in April. The year-to-date high was 315,000 in March.
The consensus sees the unemployment rate steady at 3.9 percent. Economists forecast a 0.3 percent month-over-month rise in hourly earnings, up from 0.2 percent in April.
Earlier incoming data suggest we take the under on the headline number.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released on Tuesday, and Wednesday’s private payrolls report from ADP were softer than expected.
Initial jobless claims reached a four-week high of 229,000 during the period ended June 1, exceeding a consensus forecast of 219,000 and up from 221,000 the prior week.
And the labor market still presents a generally healthy picture.
What investors, traders, and speculators – and workers, of course – would like to see now are affirmative steps to ensure that remains the case.
On Thursday the European Central Bank joined the Bank of Canada in creating a permission structure for the Federal Reserve to make its own first cut.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week.
The market now expects Jerome Powell and company to move in September, forward from a recent estimate of December, with a total of two cuts this year.
GameStop $GME soared again on Thursday – 47.45 percent in normal trading, nearly 10 percent in the first 90 minutes of the after-hours session.
Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, is going live at high noon, though he hasn’t disclosed what he plans to discuss.
Roaring Kitty’s YouTube post announcing the livestream includes a lengthy new disclaimer clarifying the “educational and entertainment” purpose of the channel and that the content represents the creator’s opinion.
“This YouTube channel is not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided in these videos,” it reads. “Statements and opinions are subject to change without notice.”
Happy Friday!