How To Feel About Sentiment
Things are better than they seem.
By the time the University of Michigan calculates its final consumer sentiment index for June people will probably have experienced cheaper gas prices.And that’ll probably help them feel a little better about the way things are going out there.
Sentiment surveys – for many reasons, including pure partisanship – are increasingly less reliable indicators of what’s really happening. They reflect vibes, not data.
Fortunately, there is a lot of data out there – from government and university as well as purely independent sources.
Let’s take a look at a couple of them for some insight on recent economic activity.
According to oil and refined products analyst Patrick De Haan – he’s @GasBuddyGuy on X – the average price of gasoline in the US decreased for two consecutive weeks through June 10, declining by 10 cents from June 3 to $3.40 per gallon.
“The national average is down 23.0 cents from a month ago and is 18.2 cents per gallon lower than a year ago,” De Haan noted a week ago.
Gas prices were down in nearly every state. Prices in nearly every state are also down compared to a month ago. “Americans will spend roughly $425 million less per week on gasoline than a year ago,” De Haan calculated.
Not that gas prices are getting in the way of our good time, as data from the National Retail Federation and CNBC released on June 10 indicate.
We have a pretty good look-through from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor for May, which showed a 0.26 percent month-over-month increase in total retail sales, reversing a 0.6 percent decline in April.
The NRF cited job growth and continuing wage gains for the way consumers are behaving.
It’s a good idea to watch what people do rather than listen to what they say.
Speaking of speakers, we’ll hear from seven different Fed governors between Monday and Tuesday and then our central bankers will go quiet for the rest of the week.
Wednesday is Juneteenth Day, and the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq, and the US bond market will be closed.
Retail sales will be followed by housing starts on Thursday and existing home sales on Friday.
The forecast for housing starts is for 1.380 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up from 1.360 million in April. Analysts see existing home sales of 4.10 million, down from 4.14 million.
Happy Monday.