Can the Fed Chair Trigger a Selloff?
That’s a half-serious question.
As inevitable is the S&P 500’s long-term up-and-to-the-right trend, so are the corrections.They happen every year: When we make our financial plans and build our investment portfolios we have to account for drawdowns.
We’ll save the more complex discussion of diversification through time and asset class for future newsletters.
For now, let’s just make that point clear: The market will correct by 10 percent give or take this year. The major factor in these situations is you and your preparation.
Paul Harris, a partner and portfolio manager with Harris Douglas Asset Management, shares specifics about what you can do right now to position for the rest of 2024 in a recent StockPick Interview.
As we’ve detailed the last two days, history compiled by Carson Group suggests the correction will happen later this year but not this month.
The S&P 500 has been green nine in a row and 11 of the past 12 Julys, and it’s been the best month for stocks over the past 20 years, with an average return of 2.3 percent.
It was below average with a gain of 0.27 percent, but we’ll take it.
And the first half of July is usually pretty decent too – there just aren’t many bad days.
That event is scheduled to start at 9:30 a.m. ET.
And the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will follow up shortly with the release of its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May – the JOLTS report – at 10:00 a.m.
Job openings in April were at their lowest level since 2021, and the consensus expects another decline in May. Down from a peak of 12.2 million in March 2022, openings are still historically high.
Wednesday is a particularly loaded one ahead of the Fourth of July. And note that the New York Stock Exchange will close early, at 1:00 p.m., so we can get the party started.
But first…
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams is making his own appearance at the ECB Forum in Portugal at 6:30 a.m., and then data on initial claims for unemployment insurance will be released a day early, at 8:30 a.m.
That’s followed by services PMI reports from both S&P and ISM as well as factory orders data from the US Census Bureau.
And then we’ll get the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting at 2:00 p.m.
Markets are closed for literal fireworks on Thursday, of course.
This week’s grand finale is the BLS report on the employment situation for June, including the number of new jobs created, the unemployment rate, and hourly wages.
Other incoming data reveal some cooling.
This data speaks directly to our central bankers’ mandate, so they and we must pay at least some attention.
