Nvidia Is Not “The Market”
And Fed credibility on employment is important too.
That’s a sharp move down and to the right for Nvidia $NVDA, about 15 percent in just three days and sufficient to qualify it as an “official” correction.NVDA shed more than $500 billion in market capitalization since Thursday and fell out of the exclusive $3 trillion club.
Insiders are selling at the fastest pace in years. But daily retail inflow is still spiking in the aftermath of the chip maker’s first-quarter earnings release.
It’s a compelling backdrop for the company’s annual shareholder meeting on Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET.
It’s the S&P 500’s worst single-day performance this month: a 0.31 percent decline.
It’s wild how boring that is, as Ritholtz Wealth Management chief market strategist Callie Cox pointed out in a pretty insightful X post on Monday morning.
“It is SO boring out there, folks. Like the most boring it's been in approximately 50 years. The S&P 500's worst day this month has been -0.25%,” Cox noted.
“The index hasn't had a month in which its worst day was -0.25% or better since August 1965.” The data are no doubt a little bit different for “worst day was -0.31% or better,” but probably not much.
Generally speaking, for markets as well as the economy, things are trending fine. And there are catalysts and/or contingencies in the works for further upside and to contain any cracks.
Mish Schneider gets specific in her Weekly Market Outlook with another Economic Modern Family reunion.
We know at least one high-level monetary policy maker is now focusing on the employment situation as the Federal Reserve continues to consider incoming data and the appropriate level for its benchmark interest rate.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Steve Liesman of CNBC Monday morning that he’s “closet optimistic that we’re going to see improvement” with incoming inflation data.
Goolsbee also said he’s hopeful the Fed will have "a little bit more confidence” inflation-side pressures are coming down after being higher than expected at the start of the year.
He didn’t say anything about September. But he did say central bankers have to think about whether a federal funds target range of 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent is still appropriate.
Beyond inflation, Goolsbee said, there are more and more signs the economy is cooling. He suggested the present level is appropriate when “you're trying to guard against overheating.”
“If you're going to be extra restrictive for too long,” Goolsbee explained, “you're going to have to start worrying about what's happening to the real economy.
“It is worth wondering about where we are on our restrictiveness scale,” Goolsbee said.
There’s some sooner-rather-than-later rate cut smoke here.
