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  • From green to red.
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  • GDP growth looks just right…
markets

$NVDA Leads Stocks Down Late

There’s a bridge down in Baltimore.

Stocks sold off hard into the close on Tuesday after hanging in positive territory for most of the regular trading session.

That stocks were green at the open suggests some of that resilience that still typifies this rally, even the ever-so-slight bullishness a positive signal on a morning when a big cargo ship took out a major bridge in Baltimore.

There will be knock-on effects from this accident, which will cut off Baltimore’s container port along the Patapsco River from global shipping lanes until the channel to the Chesapeake Bay can be cleared.

Most immediately, for example, truckers carrying hazardous materials have been re-routed from I-695, which took them around and away from Charm City’s tunnels on their journeys along the major north-south/south-north route on the US eastern seaboard.

Traffic and transportation disruptions will last weeks and months, impacting not just the Mid-Atlantic but the West Coast as well.

And, still, it’s all about Nvidia $NVDA.

Quarterly performance of the S&P 500 Index and the long-term trend since 1972.

The new tech bellwether was down 2.57 percent at the closing bell after selling off on heavy volume during the last two hours of trading, leading the Nasdaq Composite and the other major indexes into the red.

There was no news on NVDA. It was just the vehicle that most dramatically demonstrated end-of-quarter-positioning narratives on a day when the only other story was the overnight collapse of a major piece of US infrastructure.

Ho-hum, indeed.

We’re still cruising toward another positive quarter, with a possibility of another double-digit gain.

As Willie Delwiche of Hi-Mount Research noted in a post linked to in Tuesday’s What We’re Reading list, after posting its best weekly gain of the year last week, the S&P 500 entered this holiday-shortened week with a good chance of doing something it hasn’t done in more than 10 years and that’s only happened five times during the past 50 years.

That is, post back-to-back double-digit quarterly gains.

According to Willie, we need to see 5,250 before shutting down to celebrate Easter.

That’s only 0.89 percent from Tuesday’s close.

deep dive

DJT Has Done This Before

Would you buy stock in Donald J. Trump?

Trump Media & Technology Group $DJT made its stock market debut on Tuesday.

The Kobeissi Letter broke it down on X shortly after the open, noting DJT soared nearly 60 percent and was halted “limit up” because it reached the maximum increase permitted during one trading day. 

What had been trading as Digital World Acquisition Corp $DWAC is up nearly 100 percent from its intraday low last Friday and more than 300 percent so far this year. 

Donald Trump’s net worth is said to have doubled on Tuesday to approximately $6.5 billion, which means he’s one of the 500 wealthiest people in the world.

Trump Media & Technology Group $DJT surged after it started trading on March 26, 2024.

The Kobeissi Letter dropped another piece of interesting knowledge Tuesday morning: “DJT” is the same symbol the 45th US President used in 1995 when he established Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts as a publicly traded company.

It’s important to note that the first DJT lost more than a billion dollars and ended up filing for bankruptcy, as The Washington Post reported in 2016.

Trump was chairman of Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts in Atlantic City from 1995 to 2009. During his stint as CEO from 2000 to 2005 DJT went from as high as $35 to as low as 17 cents.

“It’s going public and we’re really very happy about it,” Trump said on the first DJT IPO day back on June 7, 1995. “It’s going to be a great day.”

deep dive |
March 27, 2024

DJT Has Done This Before

MACROECONOMICS

I Want My GDP

And I want it right now.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its third estimate for fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 gross domestic product tomorrow at 8:30 a.m.

What if we don’t want to wait that long? What if we don’t want to wait that long, ever? And what if we don’t want to wait that long for a look backward anyway?

Well, there’s a tool for all of that.

According to the Atlanta Fed, its GDPNow model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the BEA.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting tool says first-quarter growth was 2.1 percent.

It’s not an official forecast. “Rather,” the Atlanta Fed says, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.”

And it’s all about the math: There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow.”

The estimate as of March 26 for real GDP growth (calculated based on a seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter is 2.1 percent, unchanged from March 19 after rounding.

Based on recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the estimate of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.7 percent to 3.1 percent.

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter according to the second estimate released by the BEA.

The median estimate among analysts for the update is 3.2 percent.

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